Extreme situations, anxiety country risk
The amount of electricity mobilized from oil-powered power will further enhance the assumption of extreme circumstances.
On December 18, the Ministry of Industry and Trade held a meeting to announce the results of reviewing the price of electricity supply and sale of 2018 by Vietnam Electricity (EVN) and the plan to supply electricity and operate the land power system. water in 2020. In particular, the issue of electricity supply in the following years received the most attention from the press, especially when the danger of electricity shortage became more and more present.
Ever short of electricity?
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the situation of electricity supply and operation of the national electricity system in 2019 is stable, ensuring sufficient electricity supply for strong socio-economic needs as well as necessary needs weakness of people’s lives; Especially, there was no need to regulate and reduce electricity in the whole country.
Total electricity distribution and introduction of the national electricity system in 2019 is estimated at 239.739 billion kWh, a strong 8.93% compared to 2018.
The 2019 electricity supply is stable. Photo: Luong Bang
According to the approved plan, the electricity supply for production and daily life in 2020 is basically guaranteed. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has analyzed that 2020 is the year of popularizing unfavorable factors, causing difficulties for electricity distribution, of which the main reason is due to the inconvenient and extreme hydrological situation. and a number of power projects are slowly deploying and operating, …
Specifically, in 2019, most floods will occur on the universal river system in the North and the North of the Central region, the water flow to the hydroelectric lake is lower than that of the popular one, leading to the water level of spacious hydroelectric lakes by the end of 2019 are very lower compared to normal water levels.
Typically, hydropower reservoirs in the Da River basin can not accumulate to the daily rising water level by the end of 2019 (specifically, the Son La and Hoa Binh hydroelectric reservoirs are expected to be 10-20m lower than the water level. normal water level), some large hydroelectric lakes in the central region and the south such as Ban Ve, Cua Dat, A Vuong, Dai Ninh own water levels at the end of 2019 from 7-29m better than the rising water level everyday.
According to calculations, the total hydropower output in hydropower reservoirs in early 2020 is more affordable than the normal water level rise of 4.55 billion kWh. In addition, hydroelectric lakes must make the task of producing water for domestic use, agricultural distribution, and saltwater push in the local universal. Right in January – February 2020, hydroelectric lakes on the Red River system will have to operate discharge of more than 4 billion cubic meters of water to serve the Spring-Spring 2019-2020 flooding of the Northern Delta.
This will also have a direct impact on the electricity supply for the peak months of the dry season 2020.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in 2020, to ensure sufficient electricity supply for the strong socio-economic development, it is expected to mobilize up to 3,397 billion kWh in the range of oil-powered power sources.
In particular, the dry season 2020 (focusing on 3,4,5,6 months) intends to mobilize about 3,153 billion kWh from oil-powered power source due to inconvenient hydrological situation and the need to operate electricity generation large hydropower plants (Hoa Binh, Tuyen Quang hexagram, Thac Ba) dedicated in January – February 2020 will not ensure the ability to mobilize these plants in the peak months of the dry season.
“The amount of electricity mobilized in the range of oil-powered power sources will increase if there are extreme situations such as the amount of water returning to the hydroelectric reservoirs continues to be better than the frequency of 65%, the extra transportation will increase sharply or there will be extended incidents at coal-fired power plants and gas turbines” said the Ministry of Industry and Trade
Solar power contributes to reducing the amount of electricity that runs on high prices. Photo: Luong Bang
Run oil generators
Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan – Director of Electricity Regulatory Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade said: In 2019, the total amount of electricity that runs oil with high cost is about 1.7 billion kWh, lower than the planned 2.57 billion kWh before. By 2020, the expected mobilization of oil-powered sources is also estimated at under 4 billion kWh.
“The Ministry of Industry and Trade is officially expected to be 3.4 billion kWh. This is calculated on the infrastructure of the script are all factors … but if 2020 weather hot, carrier spike or hydropower reservoirs of water in less than reality … demands the mobilization of oil may be higher … ”, Mr. Tuan noted in the context of extremely essential system to mobilize electricity running oil. Affordable power sources will be prioritized first.
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Hoang Quoc Vuong affirmed that, according to the Ministry’s calculations, the ability to ensure electricity for 2020 is basically still solved. In addition, the possibility of large power shortages will occur from 2021 to 2025 with the estimated annual shortage of about 7-8 billion kWh if the power plants are still continuing slowly and cannot be completed, and the economical and efficient use of electricity is not substantially deployed.
Deputy Minister for Ministry of Industry and Trade Hoang Quoc Vuong said that when we mobilize diversified oil production, the situation is invested by Vietnam Electricity solidification will be more competitive for 1 kWh oil more expensive than common compared to running coal and more expensive than owning hydroelectricity.
“However, whether or not we bring the electricity price adjustment here, we not only rely on electricity costs or not, we have to base the majority on other factors,” said Hoang Quoc Vuong noted.
|EVN’s production and business results in 2018 yielded VND 698 billion, corresponding to the profit-after-tax ratio of equity in 2018 of 0.47%.|
Price amounts not yet included in the electricity supply and trading price range in 2018: According to the provisions of the Prime Minister’s Decision No. 34/2017 / QD-TTg of July 25, 2017, on the price bracket of price levels Average electricity retail for the 2016-2020 period, a part of the exchange rate difference made according to the electricity sales contract of 2015 and the exchange rate difference of the whole 2017 will be included in the cost in 2018. Not only that, because 2018 did not adjust electricity prices, these two exchange rate differences with a total value of about 3,090.9 billion were suspended and not included in the price of electricity distribution and trading in 2018.